OPEC+ is set to approve a preliminary deal to raise oil production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) from September, according to sources, as fears grow over possible supply disruptions linked to Russia. A final decision is expected at a virtual meeting at 1100 GMT, with U.S. pressure mounting on India to curb Russian oil imports in an effort to push Moscow toward peace talks with Ukraine.
The alliance, which includes 10 non-OPEC producers such as Russia and Kazakhstan, controls roughly half of global oil output. If confirmed, the hike would fully reverse OPEC+’s largest tranche of production cuts, originally implemented to support prices. The group began scaling back cuts earlier this year, driven in part by calls from U.S. President Donald Trump to increase supply and regain market share.
Since April, OPEC+ members have progressively raised output: 138,000 bpd in April, followed by larger hikes of 411,000 bpd in May, June, and July, and 548,000 bpd in August. Despite these increases, Brent crude prices remain elevated, closing near $70 per barrel on Friday, up from April’s 2025 low of around $58.
If the September increase is approved, the group will have fully unwound its 2.2 million bpd production cut, with the United Arab Emirates gaining an additional 300,000 bpd in output. However, voluntary cuts of about 1.65 million bpd from eight members and a broader 2 million bpd reduction across all members remain in place until the end of 2026.
Sunday’s meeting will not address other output cuts, sources confirmed. The planned increase underscores OPEC+’s confidence in strong oil market fundamentals despite geopolitical tensions and ongoing supply concerns.